Interpreting the real estate Stats of winter
I’m writing this on a particularly wet and miserable day and I’m counting down the days to daylight saving and brighter evenings (Only 35 to go). Winter on the whole hasn’t been bad for the weather but it has been good for real estate sales with the average number of days for a sale being 28 which is pretty good historically.
At the end of July this year the Real Estate Institute had 551 sales for Upper Hutt which is 60 sales up on the same period for 2017 so we are tracking well, however I can’t really talk about the number of sales being up without mentioning the price increases we have seen and are still seeing.
It has been a while since I had a rant at the statistics and how they can be misleading (yes I appreciate the irony of saying that while using the same stats) But the Real Estate institute figures tell me that the median price in July 17 was $465,000 while that figure is exactly the same in July 2018 showing no price increases. How can this be?
2 months ago the median price was $510,000 so does anyone think the market has just crashed?
The answer is obvious to anyone in the market looking to buy: NO.
So why the differentials? The median figure is the middle number, so of 50 sales the 25th sale in order of price becomes the median but this figure can be flawed. If we sell more high value properties and fewer low value on that 50 the median price will be substantially higher similarly if we sell more lower price properties that will bring the median down.
I have to be honest, I don’t have a better way of working out and supplying the figures so we will continue to work with them but there is a reason the phrase “lies, lies and damned statistics”was created.
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